Why the Theatrical Window Debate at CinemaCon Feels Hopeless
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This week’s CinemaCon in Las Vegas was besieged by seemingly endless debate over inconsistent theatrical windows.
The tendency of some studios to release new films on digital platforms as soon as three weeks after they hit theaters continues to draw significant ire from those on the exhibition side, with Cinema United chief Michael O’Leary calling for normalized in cinemas.
Ultimately, this is an exercise in reality denial.
On average, the top 10 films so far in 2025 fell 59% in their second weekends. Excluding “Snow White,” which has only been in theaters for two weekends, the same top films fell an average of 86% by their fourth weekend.
Despite being over the hump of post-strike film delays that diminished the 2024 calendar, the first quarter of 2025 suffered a 12.3% year-over-year drop in domestic grosses, larger than the decline from 2023 a year earlier.
The best new film of the quarter was Disney’s new “Captain America” MCU outing, but that performed on the lower scale of what is typical for Marvel. After that was Universal’s animated “Dog Man,” which has amassed close to $100 million stateside but nowhere close to what “Kung Fu Panda 4” brought in over the same period last year.
Meanwhile, “Snow White” is shaping up to be a more pronounced bomb for Disney, having earned well under $100 million domestically and not much more internationally, making it unlikely to recoup its budget, which was more than $200 million.
Most important, there was no sci-fi spectacle released during the quarter at the scale of Warner Bros.’ “Dune.” Instead, Warner Bros.’ put out original auteur effort “Mickey 17,” an expensive film that cost more than $100 million but has made less than half that budget back from domestic locations. It outlets Tuesday, one month after bowing in theaters.
That’s precisely why the debate over theatrical windows feels more desperate than productive.
The ability for studios to take risks and make movies like “Mickey 17” hinges on those films making their money back by any means necessary, which means utilizing digital platforms early if they aren’t finding a big enough audience in theaters.
Reports of an impending leadership shakeup at Warner Bros.’ film studio have already emerged, casting doubt on the futures of Pam Abdy and Mike De Luca under corporate chief David Zaslav, who isn’t shy about killing or selling finished films entirely to free up cash.
Warners may not have as robust a slate as Universal, but its 2025 offerings are certainly diverse, with more auteur efforts and affordable horror franchises than is typically seen from the studio. If such films are left to languish in theaters for too long with no PVOD accessibility after failing to become blockbusters, it’s tough to imagine that endured theatrical exclusivity won’t highlight the failure of those films even more in the eyes of the decision makers behind them.
While Disney has held firm on 60 days or longer for its films over the past couple of years, Universal is perhaps the biggest offender of the shortened window, sending some films to PVOD platforms — including its own Fandango — in under a month.
Such a desire for an all-encompassing minimum commitment to theaters at the studios was featuring leadership from Regal Cinemas, Universal and Neon, plus “Top Gun: Maverick” director Joseph Kosinski, whose high-octane “F1” for Apple hits theaters in June through Warner Bros.
During that discussion, Peter Levinsohn, Universal’s global distribution chief, boasted that “Wicked” made $100 million on PVOD in addition to its nearly $475 million domestic haul in theaters. Universal revealed in Comcast’s last earnings report that “Wicked” became its best first-day and first-week release ever on PVOD when it hit its digital window at the end of December, following the theatrical release just before Thanksgiving. The film still made another $40 million in theaters in 2025.
It’s hard to fault cinemas for wanting more from studios in a particularly cautious year of scheduling. An untitled film from the “South Park” creators and Kendrick Lamar was delayed by Paramount to March 2026 right before CinemaCon kicked off, saving the film from sharing a competitive window with a new “Jurassic World” sequel on July 4, which makes it the sole new studio offering for the holiday weekend this summer.
Theaters can’t have it both ways. If the majors aren’t able to recoup film costs as soon as it becomes necessary to utilize digital platforms, it’s hard to see how the failures that have defined Q1 2025 won’t stand out that much more to corporate scrutiny.